Who will win the major awards this NBA season? SPV helps.

This post is the first piece of a series, authored by William Benton who created the SPV metric.
Who will win the major awards this NBA season?  This is what the Statistical Player Value tells us so far.  I will first show the three measures provided by SPV, and then determine who the MVP will likely be.

The MVP Race

 

This first chart shows SPV Per Team Minute.  Jokic leads with a value of 1.77 value points per team minute.  As good as his numbers are, in this metric he is only 33rd in ZPTM, being only 1.26 standard deviations above the Average Starter Value for this measure.

 

Other mentions: Joel Embiid, widely regarded as the other front runner for MVP is 7th on this list, largely because he missed more games, but also because his popularity does not match his statistical output.  Trae Young is a solid second on the list and gets virtually no mention as an MVP candidate.  Dejounte Murray is third on the list, but also gets virtually no mention in the discussion about MVP.  Russell Westbrook is 8th on the list, despite having an off-season statistically, and driven largely from missing only one game this year.

 

PLAYER PLAYED STARTED SPV SPVPG SPVPM SPVPTM ZPG ZPM ZPTM
Nikola Jokic 69 69 6510 94.35 2.85 1.77 1.66 2.18 1.26
Trae Young 69 69 6018 87.21 2.49 1.67 1.3 1.28 1.01
Dejounte Murray 66 66 5905 89.48 2.57 1.63 1.41 1.48 0.91
Jayson Tatum 71 71 5858 82.51 2.28 1.59 1.06 0.75 0.81
Giannis Antetokounmpo 61 61 5575 91.39 2.79 1.57 1.51 2.03 0.76
DeMar DeRozan 70 70 5660 80.85 2.24 1.57 0.98 0.65 0.76
Joel Embiid 61 61 5400 88.52 2.65 1.51 1.37 1.68 0.62
Russell Westbrook 73 73 5444 74.57 2.17 1.51 0.66 0.48 0.62
Miles Bridges 74 74 5536 74.81 2.08 1.5 0.67 0.25 0.59
Julius Randle 71 71 5475 77.12 2.18 1.49 0.79 0.5 0.57
Luka Doncic 58 58 5317 91.67 2.57 1.47 1.53 1.48 0.52
Karl-Anthony Towns 69 69 5407 78.37 2.34 1.47 0.85 0.9 0.52
James Harden 58 58 5260 90.7 2.44 1.46 1.48 1.15 0.49
LaMelo Ball 69 69 5379 77.95 2.41 1.46 0.83 1.08 0.49
Tyrese Haliburton 71 71 5387 75.87 2.17 1.46 0.73 0.48 0.49
Stephen Curry 64 64 5153 80.51 2.33 1.41 0.96 0.88 0.37
LeBron James 55 55 5037 91.58 2.46 1.4 1.52 1.2 0.35
Pascal Siakam 62 62 5095 82.18 2.18 1.4 1.05 0.5 0.35
Devin Booker 64 64 5022 78.47 2.28 1.39 0.86 0.75 0.32
Nikola Vucevic 67 67 4971 74.19 2.22 1.38 0.64 0.6 0.3
Chris Paul 60 60 4905 81.75 2.47 1.36 1.02 1.23 0.25

 

This second chart shows SPV Per Minute.  Again, Jokic leads with a score of 2.85 points per minute.  I have excluded players who have played less than 20 games because there are outliers among the log action players that should not be compared.  His ZPM of 2.18 is 3rd best since 2006, while Giannis in second place is listed at 5th all time.  Joel Embiid is third this year, but on track to be 26th all time.

 

PLAYER PLAYED STARTED SPV SPVPG SPVPM SPVPTM ZPG ZPM ZPTM
Nikola Jokic 69 69 6510 94.35 2.85 1.77 1.66 2.18 1.26
Giannis Antetokounmpo 61 61 5575 91.39 2.79 1.57 1.51 2.03 0.76
Joel Embiid 61 61 5400 88.52 2.65 1.51 1.37 1.68 0.62
Dejounte Murray 66 66 5905 89.48 2.57 1.63 1.41 1.48 0.91
Luka Doncic 58 58 5317 91.67 2.57 1.47 1.53 1.48 0.52
Trae Young 69 69 6018 87.21 2.49 1.67 1.3 1.28 1.01
Chris Paul 60 60 4905 81.75 2.47 1.36 1.02 1.23 0.25
LeBron James 55 55 5037 91.58 2.46 1.4 1.52 1.2 0.35
Ja Morant 56 56 4567 81.56 2.45 1.25 1.01 1.18 -0.02
James Harden 58 58 5260 90.7 2.44 1.46 1.48 1.15 0.49
LaMelo Ball 69 69 5379 77.95 2.41 1.46 0.83 1.08 0.49
Kevin Durant 48 48 4212 87.74 2.39 1.17 1.33 1.03 -0.22
Karl-Anthony Towns 69 69 5407 78.37 2.34 1.47 0.85 0.9 0.52
Stephen Curry 64 64 5153 80.51 2.33 1.41 0.96 0.88 0.37
Jimmy Butler 53 53 4141 78.13 2.32 1.12 0.84 0.85 -0.35
Anthony Davis 37 37 3014 81.45 2.32 0.84 1.01 0.85 -1.04
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 56 56 4459 79.63 2.3 1.23 0.92 0.8 -0.07
Kristaps Porzingis 45 45 3004 66.76 2.3 0.83 0.27 0.8 -1.06
Kyrie Irving 22 22 1843 83.79 2.3 0.51 1.13 0.8 -1.85
Jayson Tatum 71 71 5858 82.51 2.28 1.59 1.06 0.75 0.81

 

This third chart shows the SPV Per Game, and is likely to be the most popular measure since it is essentially the average stat line.  Jokic wins this one as well with a good lead over second place.  There is a battle for second place with a very close race between Luka, LeBron, and Giannis before a small gap to James Harden.  Jokic’s ZPG of 1.66 is 19th since 2007.  Which would have led in many other years, and been as low as 4th in the seasons that ended in 2017 and 2018.

 

PLAYER PLAYED STARTED SPV SPVPG SPVPM SPVPTM ZPG ZPM ZPTM
Nikola Jokic 69 69 6510 94.35 2.85 1.77 1.66 2.18 1.26
Luka Doncic 58 58 5317 91.67 2.57 1.47 1.53 1.48 0.52
LeBron James 55 55 5037 91.58 2.46 1.4 1.52 1.2 0.35
Giannis Antetokounmpo 61 61 5575 91.39 2.79 1.57 1.51 2.03 0.76
James Harden 58 58 5260 90.7 2.44 1.46 1.48 1.15 0.49
Dejounte Murray 66 66 5905 89.48 2.57 1.63 1.41 1.48 0.91
Joel Embiid 61 61 5400 88.52 2.65 1.51 1.37 1.68 0.62
Kevin Durant 48 48 4212 87.74 2.39 1.17 1.33 1.03 -0.22
Trae Young 69 69 6018 87.21 2.49 1.67 1.3 1.28 1.01
Kyrie Irving 22 22 1843 83.79 2.3 0.51 1.13 0.8 -1.85
Jayson Tatum 71 71 5858 82.51 2.28 1.59 1.06 0.75 0.81
Pascal Siakam 62 62 5095 82.18 2.18 1.4 1.05 0.5 0.35
Chris Paul 60 60 4905 81.75 2.47 1.36 1.02 1.23 0.25
Ja Morant 56 56 4567 81.56 2.45 1.25 1.01 1.18 -0.02
Anthony Davis 37 37 3014 81.45 2.32 0.84 1.01 0.85 -1.04
Damian Lillard 29 29 2349 80.99 2.22 0.65 0.99 0.6 -1.5
DeMar DeRozan 70 70 5660 80.85 2.24 1.57 0.98 0.65 0.76
Fred VanVleet 61 61 4936 80.91 2.13 1.36 0.98 0.38 0.25
Stephen Curry 64 64 5153 80.51 2.33 1.41 0.96 0.88 0.37
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 56 56 4459 79.63 2.3 1.23 0.92 0.8 -0.07

 

I am going to score the winner of the MVP using the same method that the MVP vote does, treating each chart as a voter.  First place gets 10 points, second place 7, third place 5, fourth place 3, and fifth place 1.

 

MVP – Nikola Jokic – 30 points.  He wins in all three measures and is the clear MVP.

2nd – Giannis Antetokounmpo – 11 points.  5th, 2nd, and 4th place votes.

3rd (tie) Luka Doncic – 8 points.  2nd and 5th place votes.

3rd (tie) Dejounte Murray – 8 points.  3rd and 4th place votes.

5th – Trae Young – 7 points.  2nd place vote. 

 

Rookie of the Year Race

 

This first chart has the top 20 rookies by SPV Per Team Minute.  The top player is Scottie Barnes who ranks as an above average starter in two marks, and slightly below average in the third.  He is followed by Evan Mobely.  Franz Wagner in third is below average in all three, but has played more games this season than the others bumping up his total for the season in this category.  

 

PLAYER PLAYED STARTED SPV SPVPG SPVPM SPVPTM ZPG ZPM ZPTM
Scottie Barnes 67 67 4673 69.74 1.96 1.29 0.42 -0.05 0.07
Evan Mobley 67 67 4520 67.47 1.99 1.25 0.3 0.03 -0.02
Franz Wagner 76 76 4540 59.74 1.9 1.24 -0.09 -0.2 -0.05
Cade Cunningham 59 59 4010 67.97 2.07 1.11 0.33 0.23 -0.37
Herbert Jones 72 63 3792 52.66 1.75 1.05 -0.45 -0.58 -0.52
Josh Giddey 54 54 3564 66 2.1 0.98 0.23 0.3 -0.69
Jalen Green 61 61 3409 55.89 1.79 0.93 -0.28 -0.48 -0.81
Davion Mitchell 69 13 3406 49.37 1.85 0.93 -0.61 -0.33 -0.81
Ayo Dosunmu 70 34 3338 47.69 1.75 0.93 -0.7 -0.58 -0.81
Alperen Sengun 68 9 2837 41.72 2.1 0.77 -1 0.3 -1.21
Chris Duarte 55 39 2773 50.42 1.8 0.75 -0.56 -0.45 -1.26
Corey Kispert 69 28 2511 36.39 1.62 0.7 -1.27 -0.9 -1.38
Jalen Suggs 46 43 2433 52.9 1.91 0.66 -0.43 -0.18 -1.48
Tre Mann 60 26 2406 40.1 1.76 0.66 -1.08 -0.55 -1.48
Bones Hyland 63 3 2352 37.33 2.02 0.64 -1.22 0.1 -1.53
Josh Christopher 68 2 2177 32.01 1.84 0.59 -1.49 -0.35 -1.65
Cam Thomas 62 2 2022 32.62 1.81 0.56 -1.46 -0.43 -1.73
Jonathan Kuminga 64 12 2055 32.1 1.89 0.56 -1.49 -0.23 -1.73
Ziaire Williams 56 28 1924 34.35 1.61 0.53 -1.37 -0.93 -1.8
Aaron Wiggins 47 32 1837 39.08 1.63 0.51 -1.13 -0.88 -1.85

 

The second chart is the top twenty rookies by SVP Per Minute.  I have limited this list to players who have played at least 35 games, or about half based on where we are in the season.  This is because the rookies have outliers.  Josh Giddey and Alperean Segun are tied at 2.1 per minute, which is comfortably above the average starter, which is more significant for Apleren who is primarily coming off the bench, but not playing enough minutes to have a good per game score.

 

PLAYER PLAYED STARTED SPV SPVPG SPVPM SPVPTM ZPG ZPM ZPTM
Josh Giddey 54 54 3564 66 2.1 0.98 0.23 0.3 -0.69
Alperen Sengun 68 9 2837 41.72 2.1 0.77 -1 0.3 -1.21
Cade Cunningham 59 59 4010 67.97 2.07 1.11 0.33 0.23 -0.37
Bones Hyland 63 3 2352 37.33 2.02 0.64 -1.22 0.1 -1.53
Jared Butler 38 1 607 15.97 2.01 0.17 -2.3 0.08 -2.69
Evan Mobley 67 67 4520 67.47 1.99 1.25 0.3 0.03 -0.02
Scottie Barnes 67 67 4673 69.74 1.96 1.29 0.42 -0.05 0.07
Jalen Suggs 46 43 2433 52.9 1.91 0.66 -0.43 -0.18 -1.48
Franz Wagner 76 76 4540 59.74 1.9 1.24 -0.09 -0.2 -0.05
Jonathan Kuminga 64 12 2055 32.1 1.89 0.56 -1.49 -0.23 -1.73
Davion Mitchell 69 13 3406 49.37 1.85 0.93 -0.61 -0.33 -0.81
Josh Christopher 68 2 2177 32.01 1.84 0.59 -1.49 -0.35 -1.65
Dalano Banton 62 1 1259 20.31 1.83 0.35 -2.08 -0.38 -2.24
Greg Brown III 41 0 855 20.86 1.83 0.24 -2.06 -0.38 -2.51
Brandon Boston Jr. 50 0 1312 26.24 1.82 0.36 -1.78 -0.4 -2.22
Cam Thomas 62 2 2022 32.62 1.81 0.56 -1.46 -0.43 -1.73
Chris Duarte 55 39 2773 50.42 1.8 0.75 -0.56 -0.45 -1.26
Jalen Green 61 61 3409 55.89 1.79 0.93 -0.28 -0.48 -0.81
Miles McBride 36 2 579 16.09 1.77 0.16 -2.3 -0.53 -2.71
Tre Mann 60 26 2406 40.1 1.76 0.66 -1.08 -0.55 -1.48

 

The last chart is the SVP Per Game for this year’s top 20 rookies.  Here we see the big nam rookies who are every day starters from day one.  The top four are all above the average starter with Franz Wagner being just a hair below average.

 

PLAYER PLAYED STARTED SPV SPVPG SPVPM SPVPTM ZPG ZPM ZPTM
Scottie Barnes 67 67 4673 69.74 1.96 1.29 0.42 -0.05 0.07
Cade Cunningham 59 59 4010 67.97 2.07 1.11 0.33 0.23 -0.37
Evan Mobley 67 67 4520 67.47 1.99 1.25 0.3 0.03 -0.02
Josh Giddey 54 54 3564 66 2.1 0.98 0.23 0.3 -0.69
Franz Wagner 76 76 4540 59.74 1.9 1.24 -0.09 -0.2 -0.05
Jalen Green 61 61 3409 55.89 1.79 0.93 -0.28 -0.48 -0.81
Jalen Suggs 46 43 2433 52.9 1.91 0.66 -0.43 -0.18 -1.48
Herbert Jones 72 63 3792 52.66 1.75 1.05 -0.45 -0.58 -0.52
Chris Duarte 55 39 2773 50.42 1.8 0.75 -0.56 -0.45 -1.26
Davion Mitchell 69 13 3406 49.37 1.85 0.93 -0.61 -0.33 -0.81
Ayo Dosunmu 70 34 3338 47.69 1.75 0.93 -0.7 -0.58 -0.81
Alperen Sengun 68 9 2837 41.72 2.1 0.77 -1 0.3 -1.21
Tre Mann 60 26 2406 40.1 1.76 0.66 -1.08 -0.55 -1.48
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 45 36 1782 39.61 1.73 0.49 -1.11 -0.63 -1.9
Aaron Wiggins 47 32 1837 39.08 1.63 0.51 -1.13 -0.88 -1.85
Bones Hyland 63 3 2352 37.33 2.02 0.64 -1.22 0.1 -1.53
Corey Kispert 69 28 2511 36.39 1.62 0.7 -1.27 -0.9 -1.38
Ziaire Williams 56 28 1924 34.35 1.61 0.53 -1.37 -0.93 -1.8
Kessler Edwards 41 21 1362 33.22 1.6 0.38 -1.43 -0.95 -2.17
Cam Thomas 62 2 2022 32.62 1.81 0.56 -1.46 -0.43 -1.73
Jonathan Kuminga 64 12 2055 32.1 1.89 0.56 -1.49 -0.23 -1.73

 

I am going to score the winner of the ROY using the same method that the MVP vote does, treating each chart as a voter.  First place gets 10 points, second place 7, third place 5, fourth place 3, and fifth place 1

 

ROY – Scottie Barnes – 20.  1st and 1st.

2nd – Cade Cunningham – 15 – 4th, 3rd, 2nd

3rd – Josh Giddey – 1st and 4th

4th – Evan Mobely – 2nd and 3rd

5th – Alperen Seguin – 2nd

 

6th Man of the Year Race

 

The 6th man award is given to the best bench player, and to qualify they must start less than half the games that they played.  I am using the same three measures as above to determine who the 6th man award should go to.

 

The first chart shows the SVP Per Team Minute.  All of the players in this category score below the average starter, largely because the average starter gets more minutes than bench players.  In fact, since 2007 only 8 players who qualify for the 6th man award have better than average starter score in this category.

 

PLAYER PLAYED STARTED SPV SPVPG SPVPM SPVPTM ZPG ZPM ZPTM
Buddy Hield 75 26 4269 56.91 1.86 1.16 -0.23 -0.3 -0.25
Tyler Herro 61 10 4028 66.03 2.03 1.09 0.23 0.13 -0.42
Terance Mann 74 31 3920 52.97 1.83 1.08 -0.43 -0.38 -0.44
Jordan Clarkson 72 1 3779 52.48 1.95 1.05 -0.46 -0.08 -0.52
Dennis Schroder 64 29 3602 56.29 1.96 0.98 -0.26 -0.05 -0.69
Malik Monk 68 30 3499 51.46 1.86 0.97 -0.51 -0.3 -0.71
Kelly Oubre Jr. 70 13 3572 51.04 1.91 0.97 -0.53 -0.18 -0.71
Davion Mitchell 69 13 3406 49.37 1.85 0.93 -0.61 -0.33 -0.81
Ayo Dosunmu 70 34 3338 47.69 1.75 0.93 -0.7 -0.58 -0.81
Devin Vassell 65 26 3299 50.75 1.89 0.91 -0.54 -0.23 -0.86
Kevin Love 67 4 3291 49.12 2.18 0.91 -0.63 0.5 -0.86
Bogdan Bogdanovic 56 27 3246 57.97 1.96 0.9 -0.18 -0.05 -0.89
Malik Beasley 74 14 3319 44.85 1.79 0.9 -0.84 -0.48 -0.89
Deni Avdija 74 6 3212 43.41 1.83 0.9 -0.91 -0.38 -0.89
Montrezl Harrell 66 3 3268 49.52 2.12 0.89 -0.61 0.35 -0.91
Carmelo Anthony 65 3 3167 48.72 1.86 0.88 -0.65 -0.3 -0.94
De’Anthony Melton 67 13 3143 46.91 2.09 0.86 -0.74 0.28 -0.99
Immanuel Quickley 72 2 3171 44.04 1.97 0.86 -0.88 -0.03 -0.99
Luke Kennard 64 11 3072 48.01 1.75 0.85 -0.68 -0.58 -1.01
Cody Martin 65 11 3080 47.39 1.8 0.84 -0.71 -0.45 -1.04

 

This next chart is the top 20 6th man qualifiers ranked by SVP Per Minute.  All of these players are well above the average starter.  I would speculate that this is because they are skilled veterans who just don’t have the conditioning for long minutes anymore, but can deliver in the short bursts they are asked to play.

 

PLAYER PLAYED STARTED SPV SPVPG SPVPM SPVPTM ZPG ZPM ZPTM
Andre Drummond 66 29 2910 44.09 2.27 0.81 -0.88 0.73 -1.11
JaVale McGee 68 14 2403 35.34 2.27 0.67 -1.32 0.73 -1.45
Isaiah Hartenstein 61 0 2349 38.51 2.23 0.65 -1.16 0.63 -1.5
DeMarcus Cousins 42 6 1452 34.58 2.23 0.4 -1.36 0.63 -2.12
Brandon Clarke 59 1 2552 43.26 2.22 0.7 -0.92 0.6 -1.38
Kevin Love 67 4 3291 49.12 2.18 0.91 -0.63 0.5 -0.86
Hassan Whiteside 60 8 2370 39.51 2.18 0.66 -1.11 0.5 -1.48
Willy Hernangomez 45 6 1603 35.62 2.18 0.44 -1.31 0.5 -2.02
Cameron Payne 53 11 2553 48.17 2.16 0.71 -0.67 0.45 -1.36
Omer Yurtseven 52 11 1381 26.56 2.16 0.37 -1.77 0.45 -2.19
Tyus Jones 69 20 3062 44.38 2.13 0.84 -0.87 0.38 -1.04
Montrezl Harrell 66 3 3268 49.52 2.12 0.89 -0.61 0.35 -0.91
Jose Alvarado 47 1 1532 32.6 2.12 0.42 -1.46 0.35 -2.07
Alperen Sengun 68 9 2837 41.72 2.1 0.77 -1 0.3 -1.21
De’Anthony Melton 67 13 3143 46.91 2.09 0.86 -0.74 0.28 -0.99
Gorgui Dieng 42 3 759 18.07 2.09 0.21 -2.2 0.28 -2.59
Naz Reid 71 5 2324 32.73 2.08 0.63 -1.45 0.25 -1.55
Moritz Wagner 57 1 1677 29.42 2.08 0.46 -1.62 0.25 -1.97
Kelly Olynyk 36 1 1426 39.62 2.08 0.39 -1.11 0.25 -2.14
Kyle Anderson 63 9 2788 44.25 2.07 0.76 -0.87 0.23 -1.23

 

The third chart is the SPV Per Game.  Typer Herro is at the top with the only score above the average starter.  Until recently he actually had accumulated more value points than any other player on the Heat.

 

PLAYER PLAYED STARTED SPV SPVPG SPVPM SPVPTM ZPG ZPM ZPTM
Tyler Herro 61 10 4028 66.03 2.03 1.09 0.23 0.13 -0.42
Bogdan Bogdanovic 56 27 3246 57.97 1.96 0.9 -0.18 -0.05 -0.89
Buddy Hield 75 26 4269 56.91 1.86 1.16 -0.23 -0.3 -0.25
Dennis Schroder 64 29 3602 56.29 1.96 0.98 -0.26 -0.05 -0.69
Tim Hardaway Jr. 42 20 2306 54.9 1.85 0.64 -0.33 -0.33 -1.53
Terance Mann 74 31 3920 52.97 1.83 1.08 -0.43 -0.38 -0.44
Alex Caruso 37 14 1943 52.51 1.87 0.54 -0.45 -0.28 -1.77
Jordan Clarkson 72 1 3779 52.48 1.95 1.05 -0.46 -0.08 -0.52
Malik Monk 68 30 3499 51.46 1.86 0.97 -0.51 -0.3 -0.71
Kelly Oubre Jr. 70 13 3572 51.04 1.91 0.97 -0.53 -0.18 -0.71
P.J. Washington 59 22 3008 50.99 1.89 0.82 -0.53 -0.23 -1.08
Devin Vassell 65 26 3299 50.75 1.89 0.91 -0.54 -0.23 -0.86
Coby White 55 16 2790 50.73 1.85 0.77 -0.54 -0.33 -1.21
Montrezl Harrell 66 3 3268 49.52 2.12 0.89 -0.61 0.35 -0.91
Davion Mitchell 69 13 3406 49.37 1.85 0.93 -0.61 -0.33 -0.81
Cameron Johnson 60 13 2958 49.29 1.87 0.82 -0.62 -0.28 -1.08
Kevin Love 67 4 3291 49.12 2.18 0.91 -0.63 0.5 -0.86
Carmelo Anthony 65 3 3167 48.72 1.86 0.88 -0.65 -0.3 -0.94
Cameron Payne 53 11 2553 48.17 2.16 0.71 -0.67 0.45 -1.36
Luke Kennard 64 11 3072 48.01 1.75 0.85 -0.68 -0.58 -1.01

 

I am going to score the winner of the 6th Man award using the same method that the MVP vote does, treating each chart as a voter.  First place gets 10 points, second place 7, third place 5, fourth place 3, and fifth place 1

 

6th Man – Tyler Herro – 17.  1st and 2nd

2nd – Buddy Hield – 15. 1st and 3rd

3rd – Andre Drummond – 10.  1st

4th (tie) – JaVale McGee – 7.  2nd

4th (tie) – Bogdan Bogdanovic – 7.  2nd

 

That is how the statistics tell us how the awards will play out.  It will be interesting to see how the sportswriters who cast the votes come to a result on this.  I am going to revise this after the regular season has ended, and all of the stats are in, as well as try and predict the playoffs based on the player stats from this season.