Net Points is a single-game performance analysis metric developed by ESPN to evaluate players more deeply and accurately than traditional stats. It uses play-by-play data to assign credit and blame for every play, considering the difficulty and context of each player’s actions. Net Points quantifies individual contributions like shots, assists, rebounds, turnovers, defensive plays, and their direct impact on team success or failure. This allows for a nuanced assessment of player effectiveness in single games, as well as across multiple games or seasons.
Author and Origin
Net Points was introduced by Dean Oliver, godfather in basketball analytics, and published on ESPN. Oliver is known for pioneering advanced basketball metrics, including the “Four Factors” of basketball success and authoring the influential book, “Basketball on Paper.”
Calculation Methodology
Net Points utilizes a sophisticated yet intuitive method to capture player impact:
- Data Source: The metric relies on NBA play-by-play data, rather than traditional aggregated box-score numbers. It tracks every event on the court—shots, passes, rebounds, turnovers, steals, blocks, and defensive actions.
- Assignment of Credit and Blame: Each event is analyzed to determine the contribution of involved players. For example, when a team scores, Net Points assesses the difficulty of the shot, the quality of passes leading to the shot, and how defensive players performed. Conversely, when a team fails to score, blame is apportioned using the same method.
- Difficulty Adjustment: Net Points factor in the difficulty of each player’s actions—difficult shots made or contested defensive stops are valued more highly than routine actions.
- Aggregation: The individual contributions (positive or negative) are summed to produce an overall Net Points total for each player in each game. A positive Net Points value means the player contributed positively to team success relative to an average player, while a negative score indicates a subpar performance.
Comparison to Other Metrics
Net Points is similar in its foundational concept to Statistical Plus-Minus (SPM), originally developed by Dan Rosenbaum. Metrics like Box Plus-Minus (BPM) and Net Points use regression analysis to assign weights to various player statistics. However, while BPM utilizes multi-year RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus) and player statistics to predict future performance, Net Points uses a more straightforward approach explicitly tailored to single-game analysis.
Regression Approach
Net Points’ calculation follows a similar regression logic to Statistical Plus-Minus (SPM):
- Dependent Variable: RAPM data multiplied by total possessions played, reflecting a player’s on-court impact.
- Independent Variables: The players’ statistical totals (points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, turnovers, etc.) serve as explanatory factors. This regression produces weights for each action reflecting their relative impact on team success.
Simplifications
Unlike metrics that predict future performance, Net Points doesn’t require complex adjustments such as Z-score standardizations or multi-season datasets. The single-game analysis allows for straightforward aggregation of actual stat totals, simplifying the process significantly.
Applications and Insights
Net Points provides insights unavailable through traditional metrics:
- Evaluating Individual Game Performances: Identifies standout performances, such as Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 59-point game (+19.9 NET POINTS).
- Understanding Team Dynamics: Can pinpoint exactly why teams struggle or succeed, as demonstrated by analyzing the Golden State Warriors mid-season struggles and subsequent improvement after the Jimmy Butler trade.
- Trade Evaluation: It helps objectively assess player value in trades by quantifying their impact, such as comparing Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis in the Lakers-Mavericks deal.
- Explaining Team Success Factors: Analyzes specific areas contributing to team success, such as Oklahoma City Thunder’s turnover advantage and Cleveland Cavaliers’ shooting efficiency, providing actionable insights for teams and analysts.
Net Points Leaderboard (In the 2024-2025 Regular Season)
| Rank | Player | Offense | Defense | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Nikola Jokic | +365 | +61 | +427 |
| 2. | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +304 | +40 | +345 |
| 3. | Karl-Anthony Towns | +164 | +39 | +203 |
| 4. | Jayson Tatum | +134 | +49 | +183 |
| 5. | Alperen Sengun | +71 | +111 | +181 |
Team-Level Insights (Examples)
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Net Points explains that nearly half (+5.9 of +12.6) of OKC’s scoring margin results from turnover advantages.
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Net Points shows Cleveland excels in field-goal efficiency (+8.2 Net Points per game), which significantly contributes to its success in games.